Could Labour win Southend West and Leigh?

June 27, 2024

Southend West and Leigh (previously just 'Southend West') is a Conservative safe seat and has been held by the Conservatives since its creation, however, recent polls from the Financial Times predict a Labour victory with a sizeable majority of 14%.

The last two general elections saw comfortable Conservative victories with the party winning 59% and 55% of the vote in 2019 and 2017 respectively. Labour has been the closest competitor in the district with a vote share of 28% in 2019 and 34% in 2017. These are massive increases compared to their 2015 results where they received only 18.3% of the vote.

UKIP (the closest analogue to Reform UK) received a 17.5% share during its height in 2015 which placed them 350 votes behind labour. This diminished to 3.5% and a distant fourth place in 2017 after the EU referendum. It is hard to infer how well Reform UK will do from these results but, at the time of writing, polls suggest they are only a few points behind the conservatives (17% to their 20%). They are not expected to win any seats outside of Clacton where Nigel Farage is running. This is not too surprising as Farage ranks as the most popular politician in the country.

On Thursday 4th July voters in Southend West and Leigh will have the option to vote for one of 10 different candidates:

• Conservative and Unionist Part: Anna Firth – Manifesto – Voting Record
• Labour Party: David Edmund Burton-Sampson – Manifesto
• Liberal Democrats: Stephen Cummins – Manifesto
• Green Party: Tilly Hogrebe – Manifesto
• Reform UK: Peter Robert Little – Manifesto
• Confelicity Party: James Miller – Manifesto
• Psychedelic Movement: Jason Pilley – Manifesto
• Heritage Party: Lara Michelle Hurley – Manifesto
• Independent: Robert David John Francis
• Independent: Tom Darwood – Manifesto